Is the ECB’s Monetary Policy Doomed to Overshoot? Consequences of Leaving out Owner-occupied Housing Costs in the HICP

欧洲央行货币政策是否注定“超调”？——剔除自有住房成本对HICP的影响分析

主    讲：Sofie Waltl（剑桥大学土地经济系）

主    持：肖超伟（中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院）

时    间：2025年7月25日10:45-11:30

地    点：立德教学楼11层1133会议室

报告摘要：

The European Union has been debating for over 20 years how to bring owner-occupied housing (OOH) into the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) – the flagship measure of inflation used by the European Central Bank (ECB) to set monetary policy. We provide here a solution to this problem that has desirable properties and does not destabilize the HICP. We then show how our extended HICP would have helped the ECB better anticipate shocks such as the 2022 inflation by causing measured inflation to rise above the 2% target sooner. Also, our measure aligns better with the inflation experienced by households.

欧盟已就如何将“自有住房（OOH）”纳入“欧盟统一消费者价格指数（HICP）”展开了长达20余年的讨论。HICP 是欧洲央行制定货币政策的核心通胀指标。我们在本研究中提出了一种具有良好性质、不会破坏 HICP 稳定性的解决方案。研究显示，如果采用我们扩展后的 HICP 方案，欧洲央行本可以更早预测2022年这类通胀冲击，因为该方案会使测得的通胀率更早突破2%的目标水平。此外，我们的测度结果与家庭实际感受到的通胀水平更加一致。

报告人简介：

Sofie Waltl is Assistant Professor in Real Estate Economics and Finance at the Department of Land Economy and Director of Studies at Murray Edwards College. She is an applied economist interested in housing markets, economic measurement, and inequality research. Her research has been published in various academic journals including Explorations in Economic History, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Management Science, Real Estate Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Review of Income and Wealth, The Journal of Economic Inequality and The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. Additionally, she has successfully applied for competitive research grants, has been awarded several prices and recognitions, and media outlets worldwide have quoted her research.