Lecture for Eurasia Grand Forum, NADS

人大国发院欧亚大讲堂

Understanding China’s OBOR Initiative from the View of India Scholar

印度学者眼中的“一带一路”倡议

(14 June 2016)

By

Prof. Sharad K Soni

Director, Area Studies Programme

Centre for Inner Asian Studies, School of International Studies

Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi (India)

Ever since China unveiled its plans for two massive trade and infrastructure networks connecting Asia with Europe and Mediterranean through New Silk Road or ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR)several countries have responded positively.But what OBOR initiative is all about?In September 2013,Chinese President Xi Jinping first spoke of Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB)in a speech at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan for reviving China’s contacts with the Silk Road nations. In another speech on 24 October 2013 at Indonesian Parliament, he spoke of the importance of economic policy in China’s periphery diplomacy and proposed a 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiative. Together it came to be known as New Silk Road or OBOR.

So far as China-Mongolia-Russia economic Corridor is concerned SCO’sDushanbe and Ufa meetings held in 2014 and 2015 respectively were seen as proof of China and Russia’s deepening coordination, not only regarding Mongolia but also regarding the greater Eurasian continent within the ambit of OBOR initiative. The China-Russia-Mongolia economic corridor has been  described as the lifeline of the [OBOR] aorta because the SREB initiative fits together with Russia`s transcontinental rail plan and Mongolia’s Prairie Road or Grassland Road or the steppe road program.AUS$ 230 bln cost high speed rail line project linking Beijing and Moscow through Ulaanbaatar has already been agreed upon by Russia and China, which would basically reduce 7000-km journey from 6 to just 2 days. It has been noticed that this connectivity has potential to boost the China- Mongolia-Russia economic corridor besides promoting practical cooperation projects, including railways, roads, energy resources, logistics, transportation and agriculture.

As regards upcoming SCO expansion, President Xi has been quoted as saying that “SCO members have created a new model of international relations, i.e., partnership instead of alliance.” With Xi’s “One Belt, One Road” vision for increased connectivity through continental and maritime Asia, an expansion of the SCO will be a welcome development. And herein lays the fact that accession of India and Pakistan, and later Iran and other countries, to the SCO as full-fledged members may bring a new stage in its development.TheSCO may also become the world’s largest non-Western international organization that can exert a substantial influence on changing the system of international relations.RegardingIndia it has impressive bilateral  relations with individual Central Asian countries, but for this to translate into an exciting multilateral  relationship in the region, SCO could provide New Delhi the much needed bulwark.In geopolitical term, SCO expansion with granting membership to India could also provide avenues for greater cooperation between India and China in areas such as anti-terrorism and Afghan reconstruction. Incorporating India as a full member also rules out western perception that the SCO will shape up to be a China led organization.Rather it would send a positive message to the critics that despite having a range of disagreements between China and India, China is welcoming India’s inclusion into the SCO, and who knows the two sides being at a same platform may reach consensus on several issues of mutual concerns.

So far as issues related to traditional and non-traditional security in the Eurasian land is concerned,the definition of PresidentXi Jinping’s New Security Concept, i.e., ‘development equals security’ is most relevant, and hence OBOR can be conceptualized as the most ambitious infrastructure-based security initiative in the world today. China’s commitment to (a) no interference in internal affairs of other nations; (b) not seeking to increase its sphere of influence; and  (c) not striving for hegemony or dominance rules outthreats to Eurasian countries from traditional and non-traditional security issues.Since numerous countries across Eurasia have seen challenges in their economic growth, the best choice would be to enter into cooperation as it will mean more security along border and a broader market, the main motive of OBOR initiative. Indeed, the OBOR is not only about putting in place physical infrastructure but who knows it may become a source of stability in future development of Eurasia as a whole largely due to the fact  that it aims at connectivity including people-to-people contact.

Yet the OBOR initiative is not without its challenges, and hence cooperation and coordination with partner countries are the way out in the long run. In case of India since it lacks the resources today to set up competing networks, it may be meaningful to participate in those components of the OBOR which might improve Indian connectivity to major markets and resource supplies. It is now time for the Indian scholars and practitioners tomake their worthy contribution by thinking and acting strategically on OBOR in order to leave a significant impact on India’s vital interests for connecting itself with rest of the world.