Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty with surveys:

A mixed frequency approach

主办：中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院

时间：2016年12月12日（周一）中午12:00-14:00

地点：中国人民大学明德主楼734会议室

论坛内容摘要：

"We propose a new method of measuring economic uncertainty, using dispersions of forecasts from both household and professional surveys of various frequencies. With a mixed-frequency state-state model, we construct an uncertainty measure of the perceived current state of the US economy and an uncertainty measure of the one-year ahead expected state of the economy. Although distinctively constructed, we show our measures of uncertainty are highly correlated with most other existing measures. Impulse responses show uncertainty shocks lead to contraction in economic activity, and monetary policy expansion reduces uncertainty. Therefore endogenous uncertainty is an additional channel for countercyclical monetary policy.

报告人：

Zhe Ben Wang, 经济学博士，澳大利亚Macquarie大学经济学系讲师，曾担任新西兰储备银行、柏林Humboldt大学、中国社会科学院等机构的访问学者，主要研究方向为宏观经济学，已在Journal of Macroeconomics、Economic Modelling等国际知名刊物上发表学术论文多篇。

支持媒体：

《中国社会科学报》