The administration of US president-elect Donald Trump is likely to strengthen military ties with Taiwan and use the self-ruled island to counterbalance Beijing`s influence in the region, a mainland think tank has warned.
In a report published by the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Beijing`s Renmin University, academic Yang Qijing said that Trump might also boost security engagement with other Asian nations.
Yang said Trump`s policies to strengthen the US manufacturing sector could create "unprecedented challenges" for the mainland, and Beijing should be fully prepared for such eventualities.
The National Academy of Development and Strategy, which was created in 2013, provides analysis to state leaders for "internal reference", according to its website.Trump may not be necessarily like [Taiwan President] Tsai Ing-wen, but he would definitely not give up the important chance to constrain China ,Yang Qijing, author of think tank reportYang, a professor at Renmin`s school of economics, wrote in the report dated late November that Trump was likely to ignore opposition from Beijing if he decided to sell weapons to Taiwan.
"Trump, who is known for tough gestures and disregard for `political correctness`, will possibly not care much about China`s opposition and insist on selling arms to Taiwan. By doing this, the US can make a lot of money while creating problems for China."
Relations between Beijing and Washington were plunged into fresh uncertainty over the weekend after a phone conversation between Trump and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, whom Beijing believes is pushing for formal independence for Taiwan. Some mainland observers said earlier that boosting arms sales to Taiwan would be part of Trump`s agenda, to strengthen the US military and manufacturing sector.
In the report, Yang wrote: "We should not question [the determination of the] Trump administration to mobilise any political, economic and military resources to protect and advance US economic interest, or even make it its first priority."
Trump also tweeted comments critical of Beijing`s currency valuation, its imports on tariffs and its stance in the South China Sea.
Yang warned that Trump could prove to be the "most unpredictable and challenging" US president, who could adopt unconventional means of keeping jobs in the United States, including introducing protectionist measures against Chinese manufacturing, which was losing its competitive edge because of rising wages and other costs.
Trump would also strengthen, rather than weaken, the US military "pivot" towards Asia, especially its military and security ties with countries like Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, the Philippines and India.
This would "create a severe and unstable external environment that would encourage the outflow of capital from China to the US".
"Given the facts that China`s cost advantage in the manufacturing industry is disappearing, Trump`s administration could be likely to pose an unprecedented and tremendous challenge to China," Yang concluded.