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20

June

2019

[bjnews.com]DIAO Daming: Will Biden be Trump's Opponent When the 2020 General Election Begins?

On June 9, 19 candidates who announced their participation in the Democratic primary election in the 2020 presidential election gathered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa's second largest city. At the Hall of Fame dinner organized by the state's Democratic Party, each gave a speech of about five minutes.

According to the current schedule, Iowa's Democratic primaries will be held on February 3, 2020, and will continue to be the opening battle for the presidential primaries.

In fact, seven of the nine primary elections in which no incumbent President seeks re-election have won the nomination since the 1972 state presidential primaries decided the final party nomination.

The "windmill" effect revealed by this historical experience is obviously irresistible to any candidate. So even if it's only five minutes, it's impossible to give up.

It's interesting to note that Biden, the former vice president who is ahead of the Democratic Party's early voter tune, was absent from the event because he wanted to attend his granddaughter's graduation ceremony.

At present, Biden still ranks first in Iowa with 24% support, and Sanders is second in the lead by more than 8 percentage points. It may also be such a steady lead that it creates some room for Biden's ease.

While the Democratic Party attracted a total of 24 candidates (breaking the record) and plunged into a melee, the Republican camp was also reluctant to be lonely: on June 18, President Trump will officially launch his re-election campaign by holding a large rally in Orlando, Florida, a key swing state.

The fact that both parties are engaged in the campaign also means that the presidential election cycle in 2020 will be opened ahead of schedule.

Biden's victory is not necessarily against Trump's biggest suspense about the 2020 election, of course, is whether Trump can be re-elected.

As we all know, the president's performance in power can be seen in the polls, but whether the president can be re-elected depends on the opponent's situation. In other words, the election results are a process of dynamic comparison. Whatever Trump himself may be, if the Democratic Party's ultimate candidate fails to match him, the choice between the two may turn to Trump.

Today's Democratic primaries are less suspenseful because Biden almost doubles Sanders' lead in the polls. Some even joke that the Democratic presidential primaries have been completely reduced to the vice presidential race. However, some historical experiences have also challenged and questioned Biden's "no suspense".

Historic experience shows that the more participated party primaries (Democratic primaries in 1972 and 1976 and Republican primaries in 2016), the results are often totally inconsistent with the intentions of the elite political parties. In this way, with 24 candidates competing in the same field, whether Biden's advantage will continue to be maintained may be one of the key indicators of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

If Biden still wins the primaries and challenges incumbent President Trump on behalf of the Democratic Party, the final result may not be against Trump.

Biden represents Washington's political elite and is three years older than Trump... These experiences, which may have been seen as advantages in previous elections, may not be an advantage in the face of Trump, who has maintained its anti-establishment color through social media.

If the final Democratic nominee is a newcomer, that is, the old and the new anti-establishment parties duel and continue to break the old order in Washington, the Democratic Party's chances of winning may not be as small as imagined.

More importantly, the Democratic Party's nominees and their prospects will affect not only the White House's ownership in the next four years, but also the future of the political ecology of the Democratic Party.

Biden is clearly more attractive to the blue-collar middle and lower classes, but it is estimated that it will be hard to avoid the situation of Hillary Clinton in 2016, where the lack of attractiveness has led to poor voting rates for minorities and young people. Other new faces, such as those of minorities or women, are indeed exciting, but they directly exacerbate the irreversible trend of the "politicization of identity" of the Democratic Party.

Looking at the general election of 2020 at this moment, whether it wins or loses, the current routine of the two parties in the United States is probably to consolidate the basic set and compete for the key set. This fierce party struggle responds only to the public opinion of some of the most important groups in electoral politics, not to the demands of the national interests of the United States.

So it can be concluded that no matter which party wins or loses in 2020, it is the people's real desire to get rid of the strange circle of Party polarization as soon as possible.