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Research Update

Research Update

22

May

2019

Macroeconomic Monthly Data Analysis Conference (May 2019) of China Macroeconomic Forum Was Held in RUC

On May 18, 2019, the Macroeconomic Monthly Data Analysis Conference (May 2019) of China Macroeconomic Forum, jointly hosted by the National Academy of Development and Strategy (NADS), the School of Economics, Renmin University of China (RUC), and China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., was successfully held at RUC. This conference gave an analysis and illustration of macroeconomic data of April 2019.


Wang Jinbin, the research fellow at the National Academy of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China and the Standing Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Deputy Dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, released a macroeconomic monthly data analysis report on behalf of the research team. The report pointed out that the macroeconomic data in April provided an important observation perspective for China's macroeconomic policy adjustment and revision. From the perspective of the real economy, the PMI falling in April, the weakening of import and export data, the rising CPI, and the sharp reverse correction of the credit supply of the real economy indicate that the domestic demand is insufficient and the external demand is uncertain.


From a policy perspective, the adjustment and reverse revision of monetary policy and the more active fiscal policy constitute the distinctive features of China's macroeconomic policy in April. Against the background of major uncertainties in Sino-US trade consultations, the macroeconomic data in April will trigger the re-adjustment and revision of China's macroeconomic policies.

This amendment is mainly reflected in the fact that the scale of social financing and the scale of credit will be reversed again in May; the “warming trend of stock market” has become an important aspect of macroeconomic policy. At the same time, some of the important policies of the previous period will continue, including: continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, strengthen the livelihood function of treasury; enhance the BRI to further form export diversification; accelerate the implementation of the open policy and attract foreign capital.

The "Six Stabilities" policy will continue to be the main tone of the next phase of macroeconomic policy.

The guests conducted in-depth discussions and comments on the macroeconomic data and analysis reports in April, and each published a wonderful point of view and put forward targeted policy recommendations.