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【活动预告】人大国发院“理论与政策”研讨会(第51期)

Non-rational Beliefs in Small Open Economy Models

主 讲:杜清源(澳大利亚莫纳什大学)

主 持:刘 青(中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院)

时 间:2019年11月18日(周一)10:00-11:30

地 点:中国人民大学崇德西楼(原科研楼A座)916会议室

摘要:New Keynesian open economy models under rational expectations often fail to generate exchange rate volatility and comovement between countries. In this paper, we investigate whether non-rational beliefs can help explain international prices and comovement. In theory, we derive a generalized no-arbitrage condition under arbitrary beliefs, which relaxes standard uncovered interest rate parity (UIP henceforth) condition and implies a different exchange rate dynamics as in rational expectations models. Empirically, models with non-rational beliefs generate higher exchange rate volatility, however, they do not fit data better than rational expectations models when explaining comovement.

主讲人简介:杜清源,2011年博士毕业于美国哥伦比亚大学经济系,现任澳大利亚莫纳什大学助理教授。主要研究领域包括国际经济学,宏观经济学,发展经济学以及中国经济。曾在Journal of International Economics, European Economic Review, Journal of International Money and Finance, Economics Letters以及金融研究发表论文。

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